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PHEVs produce almost 5x greater global warming emissions than official figures show, according to a new analysis.

Growing Discrepancy In Lab and Real-World CO2 Output

Data reveals that PHEVs emit just 19% lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to research conducted by a non-profit organization. This differs sharply with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in emissions.

Analysts studied data from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of 800,000 cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than lab figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst involved in the report. “This gap is growing and poses a serious issue. Consequently, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as petrol cars.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers linked most of the difference to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles driven in battery power relative to overall distance. They found that only 27% of travel was done in electric mode, whereas official estimates assumed 84%.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than lab projections. That happened because electric motors were not strong sufficient to operate alone, leading to engines using gasoline for almost a third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Consequences

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker companies to escape over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs could spend about €500 extra per year in running expenses than would be assumed under lab conditions.

“The strong claims that automakers like to make about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are obviously way off the mark,” commented a transport expert. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and cutting money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Political Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into policy discussions as automakers have lobbied the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed prohibition on new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from member states with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior officials have proposed PHEVs as a potential “compromise” option to introduce in the regulation.

One external energy economics expert, who was not involved with the research, called the report a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which parts of the car industry argued there was insufficient data to accurately evaluate real-world emissions.

“These findings demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the gap between lab and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for petrol or conventional vehicles,” they stated. “Any regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and considering this evidence.”